Happy Monday Morning! No bottom yet. Data published by CREA last week showed national house prices slid lower in the month of October, dropping 1.2% month-over-month. The national home price index is now down 15% since peaking in March earlier this year, the steepest correction on record since the index was created in 2005. Just for comparison sake, the previous record was a 9% peak to trough decline in 2008-09.
The house prices will fall a lot more to get back to pre Covid and pre stimulation values. Imagine how many will be in the bucket with their purchases during bidding wars. Will be tragic for many people and families. Real inflation is much higher than reported by stats canada. Interest rates will no doubt rise more although the rates will be well below inflation. In short , rates have to rise much higher to combat inflation. Check history and Volker circu 1980. Research. Taylor Rule. Problem is BofC cannot raise rates too much higher as the cost to the government debt would be astronomical. Think of all the government treasuries bought by central bank at low interest rates. Those bonds with current interest rates are worthless.
The house prices will fall a lot more to get back to pre Covid and pre stimulation values. Imagine how many will be in the bucket with their purchases during bidding wars. Will be tragic for many people and families. Real inflation is much higher than reported by stats canada. Interest rates will no doubt rise more although the rates will be well below inflation. In short , rates have to rise much higher to combat inflation. Check history and Volker circu 1980. Research. Taylor Rule. Problem is BofC cannot raise rates too much higher as the cost to the government debt would be astronomical. Think of all the government treasuries bought by central bank at low interest rates. Those bonds with current interest rates are worthless.