"This is morphing into a real problem, and is actually exacerbating the downturn in the resale market."
It's certainly bad news for investors and landlords, who face the prospect of ever-increasing competition from the wave of new rental supply. But it's good news for renters and first-time homebuyers.
I enjoy reading Steve's weekly report although I don't live in BC now and have recommended friends to subscribe. I question one point regarding that Canada's population for the first 3 quarters 2025 increased by a mere 1,000: that didn't seem right and researched-
No, Canada's population growth was not a mere 1,000 people in the first three quarters of 2025; instead, it saw very slow growth in Q1 (around 20,000) but a significant decrease in Q3 (76,000), primarily due to falling non-permanent residents, leading to a total slowdown, though not just 1,000 people overall for the nine months, with Q2 showing modest gains. The figure "1,000 people" mentioned in a January 2026 blog post refers to total population growth over the last three quarters (Q1-Q3 2025) as a massive understatement or specific data point within broader trends, but official StatCan data shows numbers in the tens of thousands.
Home prices have become completely disconnected from incomes in this country. Over the past many years, Canadians have become so used to prices going up and to the right, they over leveraged themselves. No mortgage can possibly be too big when property value will double in 5 years.
This was never going to last. We needed a correction.
That was just a political argument used to blame the government on letting in too many immigrants. The argument worked so well that it forced the federal government to dial down immigration drastically and encourage and aid more housing supply.
But supply wasn’t really an issue. It was supply being purchased for investment that had the greater effect?
Now with supply growing and demand from immigrants falling we have possibly a big issue for the supply purchased for investment.
"For example, we had one investor client reach out in April 2023 about selling their rental condo downtown. At the time we gave them a valuation of $625,000. They decided not to sell, and kept it rented. Fast forward today, the tenant has now moved out, so they asked for an updated valuation. Today it’s $525,000. Nearly three years and a $100K lower."
How much they paid for the condo? What was the return of their original investment? Are they still paying a mortgage? If they paid 250000 and it is all paid by now, cry me a river - they don't make as much money as they would like while they sleep! Why should anyone give a shit?!
Also, for realism, provide similar detailed information on the average salaries (as well as the distribution of salaries) and the unemployment rates in various areas, see how much people can in fact afford to pay. And see how much is 30% of their incomes as the upper limit of what constitutes reasonable rents, and how many would be above that treshold, given the income and rents... Just to see how exactly we sit in the real world, eh?!
Any chance of doing a deep dive on the future impact of baby boomers dying or going into nursing homes. What happens to the housing market as the boomers fade out over the next decade.
An excellent and very informative piece. Most RE agents that I run into are not this candid or informed. Can you get your comments to be added to your main page or at least a counter to show how many comments have been made. Modest suggestion.
"This is morphing into a real problem, and is actually exacerbating the downturn in the resale market."
It's certainly bad news for investors and landlords, who face the prospect of ever-increasing competition from the wave of new rental supply. But it's good news for renters and first-time homebuyers.
I enjoy reading Steve's weekly report although I don't live in BC now and have recommended friends to subscribe. I question one point regarding that Canada's population for the first 3 quarters 2025 increased by a mere 1,000: that didn't seem right and researched-
No, Canada's population growth was not a mere 1,000 people in the first three quarters of 2025; instead, it saw very slow growth in Q1 (around 20,000) but a significant decrease in Q3 (76,000), primarily due to falling non-permanent residents, leading to a total slowdown, though not just 1,000 people overall for the nine months, with Q2 showing modest gains. The figure "1,000 people" mentioned in a January 2026 blog post refers to total population growth over the last three quarters (Q1-Q3 2025) as a massive understatement or specific data point within broader trends, but official StatCan data shows numbers in the tens of thousands.
Home prices have become completely disconnected from incomes in this country. Over the past many years, Canadians have become so used to prices going up and to the right, they over leveraged themselves. No mortgage can possibly be too big when property value will double in 5 years.
This was never going to last. We needed a correction.
What happened to “ there is not enough supply”?
That was just a political argument used to blame the government on letting in too many immigrants. The argument worked so well that it forced the federal government to dial down immigration drastically and encourage and aid more housing supply.
But supply wasn’t really an issue. It was supply being purchased for investment that had the greater effect?
Now with supply growing and demand from immigrants falling we have possibly a big issue for the supply purchased for investment.
Good!
"For example, we had one investor client reach out in April 2023 about selling their rental condo downtown. At the time we gave them a valuation of $625,000. They decided not to sell, and kept it rented. Fast forward today, the tenant has now moved out, so they asked for an updated valuation. Today it’s $525,000. Nearly three years and a $100K lower."
How much they paid for the condo? What was the return of their original investment? Are they still paying a mortgage? If they paid 250000 and it is all paid by now, cry me a river - they don't make as much money as they would like while they sleep! Why should anyone give a shit?!
Also, for realism, provide similar detailed information on the average salaries (as well as the distribution of salaries) and the unemployment rates in various areas, see how much people can in fact afford to pay. And see how much is 30% of their incomes as the upper limit of what constitutes reasonable rents, and how many would be above that treshold, given the income and rents... Just to see how exactly we sit in the real world, eh?!
Any chance of doing a deep dive on the future impact of baby boomers dying or going into nursing homes. What happens to the housing market as the boomers fade out over the next decade.
An excellent and very informative piece. Most RE agents that I run into are not this candid or informed. Can you get your comments to be added to your main page or at least a counter to show how many comments have been made. Modest suggestion.