Do you actually believe the multiple record revisions by the BLS who is controlled by the Administration, while during a presidential election? Or the CPI where Homeowners Equivalent rents make up almost 30% of the basket (which is a backward massively delayed indicator), or retail sales which do not adjust for price change aka inflation. The bond market is doing exactly what it did almost to the day back in 2007. The Fed will cut, the long end will rise and short end will follow, then things will start to break and emergency cuts will ensue and rates will drop by spring early summer
Do you actually believe the multiple record revisions by the BLS who is controlled by the Administration, while during a presidential election? Or the CPI where Homeowners Equivalent rents make up almost 30% of the basket (which is a backward massively delayed indicator), or retail sales which do not adjust for price change aka inflation. The bond market is doing exactly what it did almost to the day back in 2007. The Fed will cut, the long end will rise and short end will follow, then things will start to break and emergency cuts will ensue and rates will drop by spring early summer