Happy Monday Morning! Lots to unpack this week so let’s dive in. Sales figures for the month of November are making for more negative headlines, as they probably should. There is little optimism in the latest data. Greater Vancouver home sales were down 53% on a year-over-year basis. Over the past two decades there have only been two slower months of November (2008 and 2018). Prices are still trickling lower, despite inventory levels remaining surprisingly low. It’s a similar story in the GTA, home sales fell 54% from last year, and were the lowest since November 2008. A four hundred basis point rise in mortgage rates is going about as well as one would expect, and we’re about to get another Bank of Canada rate hike this Wednesday.
If you have not already sold this only gets worse as BOC is not going to reverse even if they slow down. Rates are just reverting to their long term average. Lot of pain to come in 2023 & having a Govt & BOC governor who have been peddling ultra Low rates & overspending for way too long the hangover is getting worse with C$ Already down 6% over the last 1 year despite the interest hikes
Will the lag will slowly bring the hardship?The unwinding in 1980’s took 3 years. If Macklem stops at 4% will people try to tough it out before capitulation and defeat takes its toll? Do recent real estate transactions very likely have no cushion to absorb all the costs inflation brings to labour and energy? How many jobs will be lost in the real estate business alone?
If you have not already sold this only gets worse as BOC is not going to reverse even if they slow down. Rates are just reverting to their long term average. Lot of pain to come in 2023 & having a Govt & BOC governor who have been peddling ultra Low rates & overspending for way too long the hangover is getting worse with C$ Already down 6% over the last 1 year despite the interest hikes
will the immigrants be able to come up with down payments and will they qualify for financing If not, demand will not likely increase.
Will the lag will slowly bring the hardship?The unwinding in 1980’s took 3 years. If Macklem stops at 4% will people try to tough it out before capitulation and defeat takes its toll? Do recent real estate transactions very likely have no cushion to absorb all the costs inflation brings to labour and energy? How many jobs will be lost in the real estate business alone?
What percent of Canadians are mom and pop landlords? or do most people run their properties through their limited companies?
Good stuff Steve