Happy Monday Morning!
We’re now fully entrenched in the dog days of Summer, so naturally, the news cycle is relatively quiet. However, we think there are some important stories to monitor in the months ahead.
The July housing data for Greater Vancouver was telling. There’s no rebound in sight.
Despite industry copium, we see no signs of a rebound in housing demand. This is not an opinion, but a fact. Home sales for the month of July were down 10% year-over-year, but more importantly, it was the second slowest July in 25 years. I’m not sure how you spin this any other way.
Housing demand remains moribund. We recently learned from a close industry source that there were just 62 pre-sales in Q2 across Metro Vancouver, against a population of roughly three million (data via Rennie). In other words, any developer attempting to launch a new project for sale is effectively wasting their time and money. Expect more of these projects to pivot to rental, not because rental is more attractive, it’s just less bad, despite a 31 year high in the vacancy rate.
On a more positive note, the flood of panicked sellers appears to be easing. New listings have dropped back to their long term 20 year average. Everyone keeps talking about how bad the condo market is (rightfully so), yet inventory levels are now rolling over. Condo inventory fell 12% year-over-year, suggesting it’s probably peaked. Here’s the 12 month rolling average.
Keep in mind, just because inventory levels might have peaked, doesn’t mean prices have bottomed. There’s still 7 months of inventory for sale which will keep buyers in the driver seat.
On the flip side, houses in desirable neighbourhoods that are turnkey continue to perform well. Prices have hardly budged.
However, if the house needs renovations, or is considered a teardown, good luck. Much of this product has gone no bid, and this is pushing prices down considerably.
Case in point, a standard 33x122 lot on the west side of Vancouver, in the desirable Arbutus area just sold for $1.7M. That’s the cheapest price we’ve seen in the area for a standard lot not located on a main arterial road since 2014. Sure it had some trees on it which made redevelopment more complicated, but that doesn’t change the point. The property was tax assessed at $2.3M and would have sold close to that eighteen months ago.
Meanwhile, everyone’s waiting for the bottom thinking someone’s going to ring the bell once we get there. Opportunities are out there today, you just have to create them.
Speaking of opportunities, keep an eye on the luxury market. Here’s the headline flashing across the interwebs this week.
According to a report by the Financial Times, Chinese tax authorities are quietly digging through offshore bank accounts and auditing foreign assets held by the ultra-rich as far back as the year 2000. Driven by a massive real estate collapse and mounting debt, Beijing is launching an aggressive global tax dragnet to fill its empty state coffers.
The campaign relies on the Common Reporting Standard, an international financial data-sharing framework, to track down previously under-taxed offshore equities, real estate, and digital assets. To squeeze out maximum revenue, China's Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration, the central revenue authorities, recently slapped offshore trusts with a 20 percent tax on asset transfers and annual gains, giving wealthy individuals a strict 90-day window to settle unpaid bills or face frozen accounts.
This sudden wave of audits stems from deep fiscal desperation. Local government revenues from land sales plummeted nearly 50 percent after peaking at 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021, leaving regional budgets severely drained.
Not good news for the luxury market in Vancouver, which has been sucking wind since it peaked in 2016 following aggressive tightening of Chinese capital controls, and domestic foreign buyer bans.
In other words, the beatings shall continue until morale improves.
Here’s one that caught our attention this past week.
This west side mansion just sold for $8M in foreclosure, a steep drop from the previous sale price of $13.7M in 2018.
Like I said, the deals are out there, you just have to roll up your sleeves. Or you could simply watch the court-ordered listings, which continue to hit new highs.
While most people are at the lake, others are bargain hunting.
I wonder about the build out of rental units considering that there next to no growth in population??? Are we playing a gamer of musical chairs with more chairs than people?? Love your insights one day.
Thank you 4 the perspective.
How is South American and Iranian potential buyers list going?
Hopefully some of beneficiaries of the AI buildout will be looking the BC coast!